2017 MLB Season Preview

2017 MLB Season Preview

Other than October, this is the best time of the year for sports. We’ve had another insane March Madness (a big congrats if you still have a Final Four team other than UNC), the Masters is next week (preview coming this weekend), the NBA and NHL playoffs will be here shortly and MLB season starts April 2^nd. Don’t worry, we’re still a golf course and this is generally a golf blog, but I thought we’d take a break this week to do a quick preview of the fantastic marathon that is Major League Baseball.

Even if you’re a casual fan, there are a few storylines worth noting. The Cubs broke their 108-year World Series drought, and are widely considered the favorite to repeat. Mike Trout just completed the ninth-best five-year stretch of any position player in history (according to FanGraph’s Wins Above Replacement – see glossary at the bottom). And he’s only 25, still entering his prime by baseball standards. The game has undergone a broad shift, as analytics have replaced traditional statistical standards. Bullpens are more valuable than ever as managers seek creative ways to utilize their best relievers in important situations, no matter the inning (teams have realized that starters are often much worse the third time through the lineup).

Like every year, there are bound to be surprise teams and players. We’ll take a look at the contenders, sleeper teams and my picks for the major awards (asterisk * denotes a homer pick).

Best Overall Record:

AL – Boston Red Sox (97-65)

Tough not to give this one to Cleveland, considering they added a bomber in the middle of the lineup (Edwin Encarnacion) and were up 3-1 in the World Series before the Cubbie miracle. There are questions in Boston with the retirement of Big Papi and David Price’s health, but they added Chris Sale’s electric arm and return the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Rick Porcello. Last year it seemed that every time you saw the ticker on SportsCenter the Red Sox had put up 10+ runs, and they will be replacing Papi’s bat with the #1 prospect in baseball, Andrew Benintendi. Mookie Betts is now a perennial MVP candidate. Barring an injury bug, watch out.

Other Notables: Astros, Indians, Rangers

NL – Chicago Cubs (99-63)

The Cubs look tough to beat for the next decade. While their staff has aged (Arrieta, Lester and Lackey are all over 30), the lineup is young and their defense is elite. Joe Maddon could pretty much shuffle the lineup around every day and they’d still have a top-3 offense. The return of Kyle Schwarber just adds another dynamic bat to an already history-making attack. Barring another crazy Cardinals’ run, it’s hard to not see them running away with the NL Central.

Other Notables: Dodgers, Mets, Nationals

Surprise Team –

AL – Minnesota Twins*

This isn’t predicated on anything other than pure hope. The Twins’ staff doesn’t scare anyone, and it’s a major leap of faith that Joe Mauer will rise from the dead. Buxton and Sano would need to return to status as elite young talent and a staff ace would need to be found somewhere on the streets of Minneapolis. But hey, right now, we’re tied for first!

Other Notables: Angels, Athletics, Tigers

NL – Colorado Rockies

It would be nice to see the Rockies catch a break. It’s extremely difficult to attract free-agent pitching to the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and they’ve already been ripped with injuries (Ian Desmond, broken hand, out a month; Tom Murphy, broken forearm, out until May, David Dahl, broken rib, probably out for April). Yet, there’s optimism. No pitcher wants to face Nolan Arenado or the rest of their lineup anywhere. Jon Gray is developing into an ace, and they have a couple No. 2 types in Chatwood and Anderson that can get them through the season. This just feels like a weird enough blend of a good old manager seeking redemption (Bud Black) and a young team with an MVP candidate (Arenado) that they could sneak into the playoffs.

Other Notables: Braves, Marlins, Pirates

Playoff Picks –

AL-

Wild Card – Rangers over Tigers

Divisional – Red Sox over Rangers, Astros over Indians

Championship – Astros over Red Sox

NL-

Wild Card – Rockies over Nationals

Divisional – Cubs over Rockies, Mets over Dodgers

Championship – Mets over Cubs

World Series – Mets over Astros

 

Awards –

AL-

MVP – Mookie Betts, Red Sox

 Cy Young – Yu Darvish, Rangers

Rookie of the Year – Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox

Manager of the Year – A.J. Hinch, Astros

Comeback Player – Joe Mauer, Twins*

NL-

MVP- Nolan Arenado, Rockies

Cy Young – Noah Syndergaard, Mets

Rookie of the Year – Dansby Swanson, Braves

Manager of the Year – Bud Black, Rockies

Comeback Player – Bryce Harper, Nationals

 

Top Ten Fantasy Players –

1. Mookie Betts, Red Sox
2. Nolan Arenado, Rockies
3. Mike Trout, Angels
4. Manny Machado, Orioles
5. Jose Altuve, Astros
6. Kris Bryant, Cubs
7. Bryce Harper, Nationals
8. Carlos Correa, Astros
9. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
10. Noah Syndergaard, Mets

 

Glossary –

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) – If you’ve been watching baseball at all recently, you’ll probably have seen or heard this term. It’s basically a statistic that encompasses a given player’s entire contribution to a team. It states how many wins this player adds (or detracts) compared to an average minor-league call-up or bench player. For example, Mike Trout was worth 10.6 wins to his team last year (that’s an incredible amount for an individual player). While not a perfect stat, it does differentiate well enough that you can tell how good a player is overall by their WAR number Here’s a little chart:

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

 

As always, whenever I make a sports prediction, it’s bound to be wrong. Hope you enjoy the season, and best of luck to your favorite team, unless they’re in the AL and not named the Twins. There will be enough hot-headed managers, bench-clearing brawls and Cuban defectors to keep us all entertained. Happy baseball!

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What To Do When Things Go South

What To Do When Things Go South

None of us like to think about it. If you’ve been playing the game awhile, and have had some decent rounds, you never anticipate a terrible score. More than likely you’re planning on breaking 100, 90, 80, 70 etc. the next time you play. Maybe you’ve been working hard on your game and just got fitted for a shiny new set.  You’re primed and ready to take on the world as you drive to the golf course.

So, what happens? That tip that worked the last couple rounds doesn’t work on the range. You can barely hit the clubface, and the ball is shooting off in any direction it sees fit. Now you’re scrambling to find something, ANYTHING to keep it together. You search your memory bank for some tip or move that will get you through the round. Now you arrive at the first tee with your brain completely scrambled, and zero confidence. Of course, your opening shot is a topper straight into the hazard.

Golf is the most mentally complex sport out there because we all believe we have the potential to be better than we are (which is true). Very few of us can dunk like Lebron, or hit a hanging curveball into McCovey Cove, but we can all park a 130-yard shot next to the pin like Dustin Johnson (maybe with a different club and ball flight, but still). It makes no sense that golfers shoot 78 one day and 98 the next on the exact same course and weather, yet these wild variations in score also happen to the best players in the world.

“Life (Golf) is difficult. This is a great truth, one of the greatest truths. It is a great truth because once we truly see this truth, we transcend it. Once we truly know that life (golf) is difficult-once we truly understand and accept it-then life (golf) is no longer difficult. Because once it is accepted, the fact that life (golf) is difficult no longer matters.”

-M. Scott Peck, The Road Less Traveled

A good quote to remember as we play. Things are inevitably going to go sideways sometimes. Remember Phil Mickelson at the WGC-Mexico? He saw every inch of that golf course with his driver and 3-wood one round, and still managed to shoot 68. You can chalk that up to an incredible short game (which is true), but how would you play if every one of your tee shots was in the trees? Here are some tips to help you along:

Don’t let your game dictate your attitude:

We can all be a little guilty of this. It’s easy to be upbeat and happy when you’ve made three straight birdies, but how are you after going double, triple, double? You can go crazy, break clubs, throw a tantrum and act like you don’t care (when everyone knows you do), or you can try to make the greatest comeback in golf history. As difficult as it is, you must try to take one shot at a time, put the bad holes behind you and battle back. Remember, you’ve hit good shots before, and you will again. Right now, be present, advance the ball, and let the results fall where they may.

Think about what you WANT to happen, not what you don’t want:

It’s funny how fairways become narrower and ponds become bigger when we’re struggling. Play a movie or see a tracer in your mind of the ball flying to your target. Get that feeling of hitting the center of the clubface in your hands. Having a clear mental picture of good things happening before you swing can turn your game around quickly.

Golf is all about how you react to mistakes and luck:

Good players know they’re never going to be perfect. Even on the best days, there’s wind, unfilled divots and unseen tree branches to deal with. The best players accept bad breaks and swings and carry on.

Work just as much on your mental game as you do your swing:

This includes pre-shot routine, commitment to every shot and playing one shot at a time. Do your best to put some pressure on yourself while practicing. Don’t let yourself go home until you hole a bunker shot, or make 30 3-footers in a row. Try to go through your full routine (it doesn’t have to take long) before at least 75% of your shots on the range. Mix up targets and clubs and always aim at something. This kind of practice will not only help you when you’re playing bad, it will maximize your potential when you’re playing well.

Work just as much on your short game as you do your swing:

Three-putts and not getting the ball on the green from 100 yards and in will increase your score dramatically. Even if we’re not striking the ball well, we can make up shots here. Also, short game doesn’t rely on a ton of athleticism or physical ability. If you worked hard enough, you could be as good as anyone in the world at putting and chipping. We’re all going to miss greens. Have a backup plan.

Remember, no matter your level, we all go through the same thing. Enjoy it!

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Various Happenings as We Approach Warmth

Various Happenings as We Approach the Season

 

Unless you’re in Hawaii, Arizona, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands (and we’re jealous if you are), tomorrow we spring forward and hit the home stretch toward summer. I’m sure we’re all ready for flip flops and sunshine as nature keeps beating us over the head with the horrid “wintry mix.”

 

I wanted to take some time to update you on a few changes we’ve recently implemented at Hart Ranch. Obviously there have been some developments in the last year, but we’re looking forward to keeping Hart the amazing place to play it has always been, as well as adding some new features and events to liven up the atmosphere and give everyone the chance to keep up with their games in the winter.

 

New Website –

 

Hopefully you’re reading this on our updated site, but if not, take a second and visit HartRanch.com to see some convenient new features. Here you can book tee times, purchase monthly passes as well as HartSmart and HartLite, see golf course and lesson information and peruse this world-renowned blog (not true). Our 2017 Event Calendar is also available, and you can now import it directly into your phone.

 

Golf Simulator –

 

Many of you have had a chance to check out the simulator and perhaps play, so hopefully your game is in a little better shape than at this time last year. We’ve gotten a good response on the sim, and will probably be adding leagues and other fun events next winter. It generally takes one player 45 minutes – 1 hour to play 18, two players an hour and a half, and four players 2 – 2 1/2 hours. If you haven’t had a chance to golf indoors, give us a call at (605) 341-5703 and we’d be more than happy to make you a time.

 

New POS System –

 

While this might pertain more to us in the shop and at the O.C., there are some benefits to our new iPad-based POS system for you as well. If you choose, we can keep your credit card on file so you don’t need it on you to make purchases. We can also check you in from anywhere on the course, so you don’t always need to wait in line at the counter. At the O.C., you’ll be able to start tabs and again won’t have to wait in line for the computer to open up. Everything is now paperless, so all receipts will be emailed to you (if you so choose). Everything will be faster and more efficient, and our computer won’t freeze for 10 minutes on Saturday morning while your friends are waiting for you on the tee.

 

Men’s AND Women’s Leagues –

 

We’ve had Men’s League running for a couple seasons now, but we’re also implementing a Women’s League this year. Please contact us in the golf shop or email golf@hartranch.com for more info.

 

Friday Night Derby –

 

For 8 weeks in the heart of summer we’ll run a two-person, alternate-shot derby on Friday nights. There is no commitment or sign-up, just let us know you want to play early in the day and we’ll have a spot for you. If you haven’t played a derby before, it’s a crazy-fun format where teams drop off on each hole and only two are left by the 9^th hole. We’ll put up more info on the website shortly.

 

Fall Tournament Series –
This fall we’ll run the Retribution of the Ranch, 3-Stick and Heaven and Hell tournaments. These are entertaining formats that give a new spin on golf (and will teach you a thing or two about your game). In 2017 we’re adding a FedEx Cup-style format to the events, where you’ll accumulate points if you play in all three. The winner will receive a special prize at the end.

As always, our goal is to give you the best experience possible and make Hart Ranch the finest place to golf in the Black Hills. We’re now open every day, so feel free to contact us with any questions, comments or concerns. Can’t wait for the season and look forward to seeing you at Hart Ranch this summer!

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The Great Rule Reformation

The Great Rule Reformation

 

So, you carry a 16 handicap index into your next round. Your goal for the season is to break 80 for the first time. It’s Saturday morning, you’re relaxed, the birds are chirping, the weather is perfect and your game is clicking. You’ve made it around the front nine with a career best 38. The back nine is tougher, but you get to hole 17 at only 6 over par. If you finish par-bogey or bogey-par, you’ve accomplished your goal and are feeling great about yourself and golf in general (Disclaimer: I don’t advocate thinking this way on the course. One shot at a time folks). You hit your tee shot on 17 well, but it’s hugging the right hazard. You and your playing partners are fairly certain it’s alive.

 

Uh oh. No one can find it. You vigorously search everywhere, heart rate increasing with each passing second. You can’t find it anywhere, and you’re not “virtually certain” the ball went in the hazard. The fastest five minutes of your life is over. What do you do? The course is packed and players are stacking up on the tee behind you. You’re walking. According to the rules (and in order to even post your score), you need to now take the longest 5 minute walk of your life, stroll back to the tee, take your penalty, most likely double bogey or worse and lose your shot at 79. What if you instead drop a ball, take a stroke and continue? I certainly don’t have a problem with it, but the rules do. Unfortunately, that 79* will always come with an asterisk.

 

Finally, the USGA and R&A (Royal & Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews) are coming together to make the most sweeping rule change reformation since Martin Luther in 1517 (that’s a bit much, sorry). In reality, this has been a long time coming. Attention spans are short, time is money and all the major sports are taking steps to make their respective games faster.

 

The current USGA rule book has 34 rules (they are attempting to cut down to 24). Doesn’t sound too complicated, until you pick up Decisions on the Rules of Golf, a 600-page tome with rules such as 24-2b/15.3, aka Opening Barn Doors to Play Shot Through Barn (yes, you may as they are considered a movable obstruction). The governing bodies of golf are attempting to make the game faster, less complicated and more fun. I’m all for it.

 

Some of the proposals include:

 

• No penalty for accidentally moving your ball while searching or on the green
• Time for a ball search from 5 to 3 minutes
• Players can repair any damage on the green
• Number of strokes on a given hole could be “maxed,” meaning PICK IT UP after a certain number of shots
• Players can drop a ball anywhere as low as 1-inch off the ground

 

Of course, we’re fully aware the vast majority of players don’t fully abide by the Rules of Golf, and that’s OK. During a casual round, it’s perfectly fine to drop a ball where it went OB. Chances are, many of these rule changes won’t really affect your usual play. We’ll see how it all works out, and although they’re not necessarily overhauling the stroke and distance rule previously mentioned, it’s certainly a step in the right direction. Please let us know your thoughts!

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